What worked yesterday may not work today; the tried and true precepts you've based world on are suddenly turned upside down. Sound catastrophic? In the world of Fantasy Football it very well may be. The axiom I am referring to? You MUST grab a top back in the First Round if you are say in the top 6 picks. There are actually people that swear by the philosophy of going 'back, back' in 1 and 2 and never factor much else into the equation. If you have been a savvy FFL Owner then you find these guys and prey on them. If you are not sure who they are, look in the mirror. Do you pour over cheat sheets made in April? Do you print out ESPN's ranking and go from there (even those guys will tell you this is wrong)? Better yet, in your online draft do you set up for 'auto-pick'? In poker there is a great phrase, "find the sucker at the table, if you don't see him, then it's YOU". Same thing goes with Fantasy Football. If you are going to play one way and one way only you will get run over.
Why am I bringing this up now and what's its relation to the 'Running Back Rule'? In case you missed it kids, the NFL is once again evolving. Nearly extinct are the 'every down back', the guy who will carry the rock all day long. In fact, you can count on your two hands the number of those guys out there this year. What this does is two things; 1) yes, it makes those guys all the more valuable but it also 2) creates a pretty deep pool of talent that begs you to hold off on the 'back-back' strategy. Of course all things are relative, and you MUST know your own scoring system inside and out (yes, we at the FFL Guru preach this every year and we still get complaints about our 'rankings'). In knowing that, step out of your comfort zone this year, at least look at a WR or dare I say a QB. It's a leap but it might be a leap of faith.
One thing I am getting bombarded with right now is, I have 'x; pick...who should I take? Again, just like every year, and written above, it is generally not enough info, which is why you can't rely on a cheatsheet. So what do you need to know, or what would I need to know to give you a knowledgeable answer:
- your point system
- how many teams in your league
- how many starters you have at each position
- some Owner tendencies
then I think I could a decent job. Without that it's tough, but I will give you my top 5 at the Big 3 spots and a sleeper and a bust (as of today 8/3/10)
QB - The Big 3 and then a whole lot of "isn't this guy like another guy", except maybe Romo (can't believe I said that)
Rodgers, Brees, Manning
Sleeper - Henne (some really mice weapons in Miami)
Bust - It's hard to call Tom Brady a bust but I see the continued diminishing of the skill positions in New England and that should impact his #'s. I certainly don't believe he is in the Top 4, where he is consistently ranked.
RB - it's all about versatility
C. Johnson, Rice and Jones-Drew - where is AP? Blasphemy? My leagues are all PPR, feel free to adjust as needed
Sleeper & Bust - going to package this one together; give me the Colts RB's for both Alex. Donald Brown is my Sleeper and Joseph Addai is my Bust. Addai literally carried me to 2nd place last year and I still scratch my head over it. Fact is he is aging rapidly and is barely averaging 3 yards a carry. Whether it be by injury or sheer lack of production, Donald Brown becomes the #1 back there by mid-season and isn't that the definition of a Sleeper?
WR - the guard continues to evolve; give me big, strong and tough. And as I think about it, I'm not sure I can give you a Top 3 that is heads above another. I'll give you a #1 and some thoughts, because I can!
Andre Johnson - duh
Other thoughts - give me some of these guys, they are ranking way too low by the 'experts'
Greg Jennings - STUD STUD STUD
Marques Colston - I've seen him in the mid teens, are you smoking crack? I hate the too many weapons argument (see Reggie Wayne for the last 3-4 years)
Brandon Marshall - he will become the first 100 reception guy in Dolphin history
Oh yeah - Sidney Rice just became the official first BUST for teams that already drafted, why anyone does that is beyond me, assuming that #4 stays retired...
In other news, the FFL Guru is continuing on with several very cool partnerships and projects to be announced shortly as the pre season goes on. One that is done, we are teaming up with Circus Dave from http://www.redhotlocks.com/ and will become an integral part of their team. You can look for weekly columns on our take of things over there as well as get Dave and all his prognosticating glory at our site, www.thefflguru.com
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