QB Shake ups Impact Week 3, and the Return of the Denny Green Quote

One of my favorite coach quotes of all time was when a FIRED UP Denny Green snapped this lovely line at the reporters in a post game press conference,

"they are who we thought they were"

It remains one of the classic moments in coach speak history, but why is it relevant to Fantasy Football and why now? Well, we are entering Week 3 and while it seems like the season just started we are already more than 10% in. To me it feels like the end is near. Seriously, I have already rationalized in my mind that after this week we only have one more week to the 'Quarter Pole' and yikes, then it's really on! Before you know it the leaves are gone, there is snow on the ground and we are talking playoffs…but I digress. By Week 3 teams start to establish themselves. They shed the expectation that they would be like last year or they don't live up to the hype that they were 'supposed to be' this year. Injuries have started to set in and already we are seeing massive QB shake ups. If there is one position, at least from a starters perspective with little impact is the QB change (with the exception in Philly). As a general rule, the QB's being yanked are guys that went undrafted but what you do need to do is pay attention to the other skilled positions on that team. Take the Steelers this week (please): with Dennis Dixon having surgery and Big Ben still suspended they turn to Charlie Batch (I think). You would never start Batch but I bet you, like me, are looking at Rashard Mendenhall and wondering if this is a blessing or a curse. Sure, a scaled down game plan dictates he runs a ton and gets 25+ carries. But the defense knows this too and they should be stacking 8 guys in the box with run blitzes. Doesn't mean Mendenhall has a bad day? No. But it does give you pause to think about an otherwise 'no brainer' scenario. Then there are the WR's and TE's. Do you bench a guy like Hines Ward? Probably not, but he probably becomes a WR3 vs. a WR2. A TE like Heath Miller might actually see some uptick as a security blanket in this scenario.

So with that in mind, where are the juicy match ups in Week 3, with the standard caveat that I will not mention guys with the last name of Manning (P), Johnson, Rodgers, Peterson, etc…

 

QB

Carson Palmer – gets pretty nice match up vs. a struggling Panther team that is starting Jimmy Claussen. Your only worry here is an early blow it, but CP should put up 2-3 TD's

Joe Flacco – where has this guy been? Well, he only played two of the tougher Defenses in Jets and Bengals. Look for the Ravens to open it up and take out some frustration on the Brownies.

Vick – Do I need to even say anything else? Last week we told you, if he plays, he is a Top 10 QB

Worthy of mentioning – Orton vs. Indy

Maybe think twice – D. McNabb – had a MONSTER game last week but will that continue? Should be a HUGE spot for #5 but I have a sneaky suspicion it won't be.

 

RB

Ray Rice – 'sticking' (get it?) with the Baltimore theme here; Rice is due to bust out!

Marion Barber – why did the Cowboys stop giving this guy the ball last week? They have to keep Schaub and Johnson off the field; only way to do that is run, run, run.

Darren McFadden – is he finally living up to the hype? Coming off a big weekend he should continue to get the ball, especially with another one of those "lousy QB change for just another lousy QB"

Mike Tolbert – not sure if Ryan Matthews will play for the Chargers but he quickly is looking like a 'bust' and he is having trouble holding onto the ball. Tolbert is a 5'9" 'bowling ball' and the Chargers seem to love him.

Think twice – who on the JETS to start? LT or Greene? I have no idea right now and that means, if you can, sit them both. If not, it seems like LT is getting balls thrown to him so in a PPR league his value is higher.

 

WR – a lot of strange match ups this week, so there is a lot of 'chalk' at WR. Here are two guys that I think can go in at WR3 but begin to perform at WR2 level

Demariyus Thomas – Broncos, after sitting out Week 1, he was Orton's 'go to guy' and you have to expect that relationship to grow. This week they get Indy at home and you have to figure they will be playing catch up at some point. Garbage time is big in Fantasy Football.

Louis Murphy – Raiders, I love this guy and not just because he is a Gator. As McFadden asserts himself, Murphy should get some single coverage and Gradkowski/Campbell can actually throw the ball well…once in a while.

 

Have a good Week 3 and see you as we approach the ¼ way mark!

Week 1 - Studs, Duds and Pick ups

Let’s start on the positive side because it was just Week 1 after all right?
The big headline grabber was Arian Foster, of course. He of the 231 yards rushing and 3 TD’s. He single handedly made the rest of the Houston Offense DUDS in fact! If you were with us in the offseason and preseason prep you would remember us talking about Foster even before the Ben Tate injury. I’ll stick by my quote of him reminding me of another former University of Tennessee Running Back --- Jamal Lewis. Certainly Chris Johnson didn’t disappoint and thanks to a great OT run Rashard Mendenhall came out in the top of the RB pack. A couple of RB’s surprised a few Owners. If you were like me and stuck with Matt Forte (my Week 1 RB pick on the radio show this week) you were handsomely rewarded with a 2 TD’s, 200+ total yards and 7 big catches! Or how about Darren McFadden? Oakland is paying the guy and I think he will continue to get the ball. WR Studs were dominated by ‘2nd tier’ guys that really maybe shouldn’t be --- while Austin Collie (11 catches, 163 yards and a TD) might have seen his best day, guys like Hakeem Nicks (4/75/3), Wes Welker (8/64/2) and Ochocinco (12/159/1) should continue to thrive and were for the most part late early to middle round picks.
The Dud list this week is littered with first and second round picks up and down the line! Who would have thought this group of RB’s could have been so bad? Shonn Greene, Frank Gore, Turner, Ray Rice and that’s not mentioning Ryan Grant’s season ending injury! Not to be outdone were eggs laid by some of the NFL’s best hands guys – Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Malcom Floyd, Deshaun Jackson and to a lesser extent Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall and Randy Moss. In fact, if you had a Viking, a Jet, a Raven or a 49er you probably are scratching your head quite a bit today.
So, who is out there to go and get? Maybe the most important part of Fantasy Football is working the ‘waiver wire’. Big caveat here though, week #1 is just that, one week. No Denny Green “they are who we thought they were” speech here. Guys you took in the first 3 rounds are not being sat and should not be dropped. You might think about trades, especially unloading a guy whose value will never be higher (see Brandon Jackson if you don’t own Ryan Grant).
• The aforementioned Brandon Jackson in Green Bay. Until they trade for someone else and they get up to speed he is the guy. He automatically becomes a RB2
• Michael Vick – yep, #7. Don’t like his ethics, morals, etc? It’s Fantasy Football – who cares? If Kolb is out this guy becomes a Top 10 QB instantly
• Fragile Freddy Taylor – I may be a Gator ‘homer’ and I love Freddy but haven’t from a Fantasy perspective for a long time, BUT, he is getting the carries in New England and he looks fresh. On top of that the Patriots JUST unloaded Laurence Maroney to the Broncos. Ride him while he’s healthy
• Any number of WR’s on bad teams that will be playing catch up 
o Mark Clayton (STL)
o Mike Williams (TB)
o Mike Thomas (Jax)
o Danny Amendola (STL)
o M. Massaqui (CLE)

Good luck in Week 2 --- may your stars rebound and your ‘reaches’ keep on plugging away.

So now that you drafted…

For so many Fantasy Football Owners it is “all about the draft” and in a lot of cases that is true, for any number of reasons.

But that can’t be it, right? Think of Fantasy Ownership like dating – I know, for some of you it’s been a LONG, LONG time (for many different reasons) but bear with me.

Remember all the prep work that went into that ‘first date’? Well your draft is the ‘first date’. How do you make sure it goes well? That you ask the right questions? Get to know exactly what you need to know and vice versa so there is a next date? How much time did you do in preparation? Have you been ‘studying’ your ‘prey’ for quite some time? Do you know where she likes to eat? What are her favorite movies to go to? Or exactly what it’s going to take to go all the way?

Ok, enough with the analogies but I think you get the comparison…

If that first date goes well it leads to a second and a third and maybe a nice relationship. Same for the draft – you put in the time, do your homework, pay attention to the little details that make your draft unique for yo, then you might just have a nice little relationship as well, with your team that is!

But what happens when it all goes wrong? You forgot your date was a vegetarian. She isn’t feeling well and doesn’t want to go on that nature hike you set up. What do you do then? You improvise!! You don’t give up! Same thing goes for your draft. No draft will ever go to the form you expect. MJD will slip because of his knee so do you take him at 4 or do you go Andre Johnson? These are the things you need to be thinking about.

But just like dating the first date is certainly important but it’s just the beginning, so too for Fantasy Football, the draft is just the beginning. Hopefully your league is built so that you can adjust on the fly (think, how do I get that 2nd date to make a better impression). What are my leagues trading rules? Restrictions on Free Agent pick ups? Too many leagues these days want to take away the ‘tough stuff to manage’ like these things. Guess what? It’s the best part!! Just like the actual best part of dating is the process of getting to know someone! The meat of the relationship here is like your ‘regular season’.

Hopefully with the right moves, the proper amount of intuition and courage you will advance to the best part --- the post season --- I am going to leave the dating side of this analogy to your imagination my friends, but I think you know where I am going.

My point here is the draft is just the draft. It is the ONE time all the Owners of your league are together (hopefully face to face because who likes online dating? ☺). Enjoy it for what it’s worth but stay engaged for the full season!! Even if it’s not going that well a season can be saved and even if it can’t be think of all the lessons you will learn by managing through it --- again, easy analogy to dating…

We are on the eve of the 2010 Football Season my friends, and just like in life, we all have a fighting chance --- enjoy your year!