One of my favorite coach quotes of all time was when a FIRED UP Denny Green snapped this lovely line at the reporters in a post game press conference,
"they are who we thought they were"
It remains one of the classic moments in coach speak history, but why is it relevant to Fantasy Football and why now? Well, we are entering Week 3 and while it seems like the season just started we are already more than 10% in. To me it feels like the end is near. Seriously, I have already rationalized in my mind that after this week we only have one more week to the 'Quarter Pole' and yikes, then it's really on! Before you know it the leaves are gone, there is snow on the ground and we are talking playoffs…but I digress. By Week 3 teams start to establish themselves. They shed the expectation that they would be like last year or they don't live up to the hype that they were 'supposed to be' this year. Injuries have started to set in and already we are seeing massive QB shake ups. If there is one position, at least from a starters perspective with little impact is the QB change (with the exception in Philly). As a general rule, the QB's being yanked are guys that went undrafted but what you do need to do is pay attention to the other skilled positions on that team. Take the Steelers this week (please): with Dennis Dixon having surgery and Big Ben still suspended they turn to Charlie Batch (I think). You would never start Batch but I bet you, like me, are looking at Rashard Mendenhall and wondering if this is a blessing or a curse. Sure, a scaled down game plan dictates he runs a ton and gets 25+ carries. But the defense knows this too and they should be stacking 8 guys in the box with run blitzes. Doesn't mean Mendenhall has a bad day? No. But it does give you pause to think about an otherwise 'no brainer' scenario. Then there are the WR's and TE's. Do you bench a guy like Hines Ward? Probably not, but he probably becomes a WR3 vs. a WR2. A TE like Heath Miller might actually see some uptick as a security blanket in this scenario.
So with that in mind, where are the juicy match ups in Week 3, with the standard caveat that I will not mention guys with the last name of Manning (P), Johnson, Rodgers, Peterson, etc…
QB
Carson Palmer – gets pretty nice match up vs. a struggling Panther team that is starting Jimmy Claussen. Your only worry here is an early blow it, but CP should put up 2-3 TD's
Joe Flacco – where has this guy been? Well, he only played two of the tougher Defenses in Jets and Bengals. Look for the Ravens to open it up and take out some frustration on the Brownies.
Vick – Do I need to even say anything else? Last week we told you, if he plays, he is a Top 10 QB
Worthy of mentioning – Orton vs. Indy
Maybe think twice – D. McNabb – had a MONSTER game last week but will that continue? Should be a HUGE spot for #5 but I have a sneaky suspicion it won't be.
RB
Ray Rice – 'sticking' (get it?) with the Baltimore theme here; Rice is due to bust out!
Marion Barber – why did the Cowboys stop giving this guy the ball last week? They have to keep Schaub and Johnson off the field; only way to do that is run, run, run.
Darren McFadden – is he finally living up to the hype? Coming off a big weekend he should continue to get the ball, especially with another one of those "lousy QB change for just another lousy QB"
Mike Tolbert – not sure if Ryan Matthews will play for the Chargers but he quickly is looking like a 'bust' and he is having trouble holding onto the ball. Tolbert is a 5'9" 'bowling ball' and the Chargers seem to love him.
Think twice – who on the JETS to start? LT or Greene? I have no idea right now and that means, if you can, sit them both. If not, it seems like LT is getting balls thrown to him so in a PPR league his value is higher.
WR – a lot of strange match ups this week, so there is a lot of 'chalk' at WR. Here are two guys that I think can go in at WR3 but begin to perform at WR2 level
Demariyus Thomas – Broncos, after sitting out Week 1, he was Orton's 'go to guy' and you have to expect that relationship to grow. This week they get Indy at home and you have to figure they will be playing catch up at some point. Garbage time is big in Fantasy Football.
Louis Murphy – Raiders, I love this guy and not just because he is a Gator. As McFadden asserts himself, Murphy should get some single coverage and Gradkowski/Campbell can actually throw the ball well…once in a while.
Have a good Week 3 and see you as we approach the ¼ way mark!
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